The past decade has seen a rapid succession of global energy crises driven by military conflict, extreme weather, and supply-chain issues. The ongoing Iran war has caused the greatest disruption to oil and gas supplies in history. Diesel and petrol prices in Europe have soared by an average of 26% and 12%, respectively, since the war began.

Initial reactions from key figures reflect a sense of urgency. Ursula von der Leyen emphasized, “We must accelerate the shift to homegrown, clean energies. This will give us energy independence and security.” Meanwhile, Wopke Hoekstra warned that we should “fasten our seat belts” as conditions may worsen.

As for the natural gas market, it has reacted sharply—European benchmarks like TTF doubled from €30 to €60 per megawatt hour shortly after the onset of hostilities. European governments have committed more than €11 billion in fiscal measures to cushion households and businesses during this crisis.

Yet, uncertainties linger. The energy transition is introducing new vulnerabilities, particularly dependence on imports of low-carbon technologies concentrated in China. Observers question whether this dependency could exacerbate existing issues.

Looking ahead, officials express concern about sustained high prices and potential shortages. Dan Jørgensen succinctly noted, “Hope is not a strategy,” highlighting that without concrete actions, Europe’s energy security could remain at risk.

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Several factors contribute to this complex scenario. The war in Ukraine has disrupted traditional energy supplies, leading to increased scrutiny of fossil fuel dependence. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency, pointed out that this conflict could erode trust in fossil fuels altogether. In response, countries like France and the UK are ramping up their commitments to renewable sources.

Key facts:

• France aims to reduce its fossil fuel share from 60% to 30% by 2035.
• The UK targets a remarkable 90% renewable energy share by 2030.
• China’s exports of green energy technologies surged by 70% in March 2026 compared to the previous year.

The European Union has allocated an additional €24 billion for fossil fuel imports since the crisis began—a stark reminder of the existing dependencies. Meanwhile, the global electricity production from renewable sources surpassed that from coal for the first time in 2025, marking a significant milestone.