The collective defense agreement, signed in September 2025, commits both nations to treat an attack on one as an attack on the other. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif emphasized the commitment, stating that Pakistan would stand “shoulder to shoulder” with the kingdom. However, analysts like Imtiaz Gul have pointed out that the deployment of three jets may not significantly alter the military balance in the region.

This military collaboration comes at a time when Pakistan is navigating complex relationships in the Middle East, particularly with Iran. Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert, noted that this move signals to Iran that Pakistan is prepared to align more closely with Saudi interests if Iran does not make concessions that could lead to a diplomatic resolution.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is grappling with its own challenges. The National Center for Meteorology recently warned of heavy rains affecting Riyadh, leading to the suspension of in-person classes as torrential floods hit the capital. This environmental crisis adds another layer of complexity to the kingdom’s current situation.

On the economic front, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have seen a decline, falling to 6.988 million barrels per day in December. The country’s crude output stood at approximately 10.084 million barrels per day during the same period, while refinery crude throughput rose to 2.738 million barrels per day. This decline in exports comes as OPEC forecasts a drop in world oil demand from the OPEC+ group by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, raising concerns about the kingdom’s economic stability.

Additionally, the presence of around 2.5 million Pakistani workers in Saudi Arabia underscores the economic interdependence between the two nations. The remittances from these workers play a crucial role in sustaining Pakistan’s fragile economy, further intertwining their fates.

As Saudi Arabia continues to navigate its internal challenges and external pressures, the implications of this defense pact with Pakistan will be closely monitored. Observers are keen to see how this alliance will influence regional dynamics, particularly in relation to Iran and the broader geopolitical landscape.

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Following these military actions, Iran has taken a series of steps to assert its control over the Strait. Notably, Iran has agreed to allow 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to transit the strait, a move that indicates a willingness to engage in limited maritime commerce despite the ongoing conflict. However, the situation remains dire, with daily traffic through the Strait plummeting by approximately 95 percent since the onset of hostilities.

As the war continues, Iran’s parliament is moving to legalize a toll collection arrangement for vessels passing through the strait, charging a hefty $2 million per ship. This new policy underscores Iran’s strategy to monetize its control over this vital maritime route, which previously saw about 138 vessels passing through daily before the war began. The toll collection initiative is not merely a financial maneuver; it is a declaration of sovereignty over the waters that are critical for global oil transportation.

Despite the turmoil, Iran’s crude oil exports have shown resilience, with an estimated 1.6 million barrels moving daily from March 1 to March 23. This figure suggests that while the war has disrupted maritime traffic, Iran has managed to maintain a steady flow of oil, which is crucial for its economy. The Iranian government has demanded formal international recognition of its authority over the Strait of Hormuz as a condition for ending the conflict, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.

The humanitarian toll of the war has been staggering, with estimates indicating that around 2,000 Iranians have lost their lives, alongside 1,100 casualties reported in Lebanon. The conflict has not only destabilized the region but also strained relationships among neighboring countries, including Pakistan, which has expressed its willingness to host talks to mediate the situation. “If the parties desire, Islamabad is always willing to host talks,” stated Tahir Andrabi, highlighting Pakistan’s role as a potential facilitator in the ongoing crisis.

As the conflict unfolds, observers note that Iran is effectively running the Strait of Hormuz like a toll booth, a characterization made by maritime expert Sal Mercogliano. This analogy reflects the new reality in which Iran is leveraging its geographical position to exert influence and control over global oil supply routes, raising concerns among international stakeholders.

What observers say

Alaeddin Boroujerdi remarked, “In other words, after 47 years, there is a new, de facto sovereign regime in the Strait of Hormuz.” This statement encapsulates the shift in power dynamics in the region, as Iran seeks to solidify its authority amidst ongoing military engagements. The implications of this new regime extend beyond regional borders, affecting global oil prices and trade routes.

As the situation develops, the world watches closely. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical juncture for global commerce, and the ongoing conflict poses significant risks to international trade stability. Details remain unconfirmed regarding the potential for diplomatic resolutions, but the stakes are undeniably high for all parties involved.

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