The coup in Madagascar on October 12, 2025, has significant implications for the country’s political landscape and its relationship with regional organizations. Colonel Michael Randrianirina’s assumption of power marks a critical juncture, raising questions about the future of democracy in a nation that has seen its share of military interventions. The High Constitutional Court’s declaration of the presidency as vacant and the subsequent transfer of power to Randrianirina underscores the fragility of Madagascar’s political institutions.

The backdrop to this coup involved weeks of service delivery demonstrations led by Gen Z protesters, who expressed dissatisfaction with the existing government. These protests, which highlighted the youth’s demand for better governance, ultimately culminated in a military takeover. This scenario is reminiscent of past coups in the region, particularly the 2009 coup that led to Madagascar’s suspension from the Southern African Development Community (SADC). However, the SADC’s decision not to suspend Madagascar this time around has raised eyebrows and sparked debate about the organization’s consistency in handling such crises.

Randrianirina, who previously played a role in the 2009 coup, has promised to restore a democratic civilian government within 18 to 24 months. This timeline, however, is met with skepticism. Political scientists have described the transfer of power as a “coupvolution,” suggesting a blend of revolutionary change and military takeover. The African Union (AU) has suspended Madagascar due to this unconstitutional change, highlighting the international community’s disapproval of Randrianirina’s unilateral actions.

While Randrianirina has been invited to a SADC virtual summit in December 2025, concerns linger regarding his commitment to the transition. The AU’s prohibition against coup leaders running for office in subsequent elections adds another layer of complexity to the situation. Observers note that the military juntas in the region have often promised a return to civilian rule but have failed to meet those deadlines, raising doubts about Randrianirina’s intentions.

Moreover, the dialogue process to restore civilian rule must be inclusive, as emphasized by both the SADC and the AU Peace and Security Council. The recent sentiment among protesters indicates a sense of ‘buyer’s remorse’ regarding Randrianirina’s government appointments, suggesting that initial support for the coup may be waning. The political landscape in Madagascar is precarious, with the potential for unrest if the new regime fails to deliver on its promises.

Details remain unconfirmed regarding the specific actions that SADC will take if Randrianirina does not adhere to the agreed roadmap for transition. The organization’s decision not to suspend Madagascar has placed a special responsibility on it to monitor Randrianirina’s actions closely. The stakes are high, as the future of democracy in Madagascar hangs in the balance.

As the world watches, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Randrianirina can navigate the complexities of governance and fulfill his promises. The planned presidential elections in 2027 will serve as a litmus test for the new regime’s commitment to restoring civilian rule, but the uncertainty surrounding the timeline raises questions about the stability of Madagascar’s political future.

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